銅價已飆升至兩年來的新高，全球最大的上市銅生產(chǎn)商表示，本輪反彈可能剛剛開始。自由港麥克莫蘭公司(freeport - mcmoran Inc.)CEO理查德·阿德克森(Richard Adkerson)預(yù)計(jì)，銅目標(biāo)價4美元。

以下方面顯示了為什么銅前景會被人看好。

1．供應(yīng)偏緊

據(jù)稱，中國最大的銅消費(fèi)國——中國正計(jì)劃禁止進(jìn)口一些用于提煉廢五金的機(jī)械廢料，這將進(jìn)一步加劇該國銅供應(yīng)的緊張。

最大的銅消費(fèi)國——中國，據(jù)稱正計(jì)劃禁止進(jìn)口一些用于提煉廢五金的機(jī)械廢料，這將進(jìn)一步緊縮該國的銅供給。根據(jù)世界金屬統(tǒng)計(jì)局(world Bureau of metal Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)，在這個時候，世界生產(chǎn)的精煉銅產(chǎn)量已連續(xù)三個月落后于消耗量。今年早些時候，必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)在智利的迪達(dá)銅礦（Escondida）發(fā)生了為期六周的罷工，再加上自由港旗下印尼格拉斯伯格礦(Grasberg mine)被暫時禁止出貨，這一系列因素導(dǎo)致了全球銅產(chǎn)量下降。

2.投資減少

自從經(jīng)歷了三年價格暴跌，在2015年許多沒有利潤的業(yè)務(wù)被迫關(guān)閉之后，盡管銅價上漲，但包括自由港在內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)商仍不愿在新礦方面增加投入?！澳悴粫吹饺藗冊谛马?xiàng)目上投資，新項(xiàng)目也非常稀缺，” Adkerson在上周二召開的財(cái)報(bào)電話會議上對分析師表示。據(jù)彭博資訊(Bloomberg Intelligence)的數(shù)據(jù)，今年的資本投資規(guī)模萎縮至2007年以來的最低水平。

3. 中國需求增長

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家調(diào)高了對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的預(yù)測，這表明從電網(wǎng)到手機(jī)等各個領(lǐng)域的管道和電線對銅的需求變得更為強(qiáng)勁。今年第二季度，因?yàn)楣I(yè)產(chǎn)出和零售銷售在6月份大幅增長，中國GDP增速超過了預(yù)期水平。花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup Inc.)駐紐約的大宗商品研究主管艾德?莫爾斯(Ed Morse)在接受彭博(Bloomberg)社的電視采訪時表示，他對未來金屬的短缺預(yù)期“很大程度上是基于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的基礎(chǔ)更加堅(jiān)實(shí)。盡管可能是由于受到了政治上的誘導(dǎo)，但中國經(jīng)濟(jì)爆炸性的迅猛增長，真的有望持續(xù)幾個月。”

4.技術(shù)指標(biāo)

盡管這些圖表是被分析師用來預(yù)測價格的，但也透露了金屬漲勢的信號。銅價在上周三上漲至2015年5月以來的最高水平2.9055美元/磅，這使得該金屬價格連續(xù)在第二個交易日高于其布林（Bollinger）通道的上沿。這可能會刺激更多的算法交易員進(jìn)行購買。上周，對沖基金紛紛涌入，將LME銅的凈多頭寸推高至20周以來的最高水平。

(上海有色網(wǎng) 閆雪松 譯自彭博社)

原文如下：

Four Charts Supporting Freeport CEO’s Bullish Case for Copper

By Luzi Ann Javier

(Bloomberg) -- Copper has surged to a two-year high, and the world’s biggest publicly traded producer of the metal says the rally may just be getting started. Prices jumped as much as 2.1 percent on Wednesday to $2.9055 a pound. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Adkerson said $4 copper is “in the cards.” These charts show why the outlook may be turning more bullish for the metal.

1. Supply Troubles

China, the top copper consumer, is said to be planning a ban on some imports of machinery waste used to extract metal scrap, which would further tighten the nation’s domestic supply. It comes at a time when world production of the refined metal has trailed consumption for three straight months, according to World Bureau of Metal Statistics data. The deficits arose after a six-week strike at BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida mine in Chile earlier this year and a temporary ban on shipments from Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which curbed global output.

2. Dwindling Spending

Despite the rally in copper, producers including Freeport are still reluctant to boost spending on new mines after a three-year slump in prices through 2015 forced many to shut unprofitable operations. “You don’t see people jumping up to invest in new projects, and new projects are very scarce,” Adkerson said in an earnings call with analysts Tuesday. Capital spending is seen shrinking this year to the smallest since 2007, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.

3. China’s Demand

Economists have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth, signaling stronger demand for the metal used in pipes and electrical wiring that goes into everything from power grids to cell phones. In the second quarter, the nation posted better- than-expected growth as industrial output and retail sales jumped in June. The deficit outlook for the metal is “sparked largely by the more solid base of growth in China,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It looks like the growth spurt in China, however politically induced it might be, is really going to sustain the rally for a couple more months.”

4. Technical Indicators

Even charts used by analysts to predict prices signal the metal could extend gains. Copper’s ascent to $2.9055 on Wednesday, the highest since May 2015, sent the metal well above the upper limit of its Bollinger band for a second straight day. That may spur more buying from algorithmic traders. Last week, hedge funds piled in, boosting their net-bullish copper bets on the London Metal Exchange to the highest in 20 weeks.